Above average rainfall has been recorded in the Fresno area this season, and forecasts show the potential for even more wet weather.

Meteorologist Brian Ochs with the National Weather Service in Hanford said atmospheric river events like the ones that hit this season are cyclical and can be expected every five to six years, though some are stronger than others.

Experts like Cordie Qualle, a lecturer in the Lyles College of Engineering, said the storms this season are somewhat reminiscent of a series of storms that pummeled California as the calendar flipped from 1996 to 1997 and led to flooding in the Central Valley and other parts of California.

According to the California Department of Water Resources, that storm series, known as a “pineapple express,” channeled an atmospheric river from warm waters near Hawaii to California and drenched the Sierra foothills with up to 40 inches of precipitation in some locations.

The pineapple express caused levee failures in multiple rivers and flood channels, including the San Joaquin River — the longest river in the San Joaquin Valley.

Qualle recalls the storm resulted in the rapid filling of Millerton Lake, causing water to spill over the dam. “All of a sudden, the water came roaring down the San Joaquin River canyon,” he said. “They had the spillway gates completely open, and the water went over the spillway.”

A historic 59,000 cubic feet of water per second cascaded down the river. The effects were devastating, flooding farmland, towns, communities, and highways from the San Joaquin Valley up to Sacramento.

Qualle said there is a lot of uncertainty with these types of weather events, so it puts the dam operators in a difficult position.

“If they hold back water, then they don’t have the flood storage,” he said, “But if they don’t hold the water back and they don’t get this huge snowmelt, then they are accused of letting the water just flow. It puts them at a huge disadvantage.”

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